SKY New Summary November 24, 2009
Existing-home sales increased dramatically in October, which in and of itself is encouraging. But the ancillary expenditures associated with buying a new home – new curtains, furniture, cable/telephone, insurance – helped boost the personal consumption expenditure portion of GDP. Even the ICSC report showed the week of November 21 had the best year-over-year retail sales number in two years.
October existing-home sales increased by 10.1 percent and inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were at the highest level since February 2007 as buyers rushed to beat the November expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer. There is still a large pent-up demand that can be tapped before the tax credit expires. Our recent consumer survey further shows that 13 percent of successful first-time buyers had a previous contract that was cancelled or fell through – there likely are many more buyers who were attempting to purchase but simply ran out of time.” The tax credit was extended to April 30. Last week Freddie Mac reported the 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/11/record_big
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, compared to the second quarter, when real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. This was the first positive GDP since a 1.5 percent gain in the second quarter of 2008. The increase was due to a growth in personal consumption expenditures (motor vehicle output added 1.45 percentage points to GDP), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp3q09_2nd.pdf
According to ICSC-Goldman and NASDAQ, retail sales for the Nov. 21 week were flat compared to the prior week. Year-over-year sales, however, rose nearly 1 full percentage point to plus 3.3 percent for the best reading in more than two years.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=nasdaq
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the third quarter of 2009 showed its second consecutive quarterly increase and further improvement in its annual rate of return. Nationally, the U.S. National Composite rose by 3.1% in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2009. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their fifth consecutive monthly increase with September’s report.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November was virtually unchanged from October. The Expectations Index, however, increased from 67.0 in October to 68.5 in November. According to Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, “Consumer Confidence posted a slight gain in November. The Present Situation Index, however, was virtually unchanged and remains at levels not seen in 26 years (Index 17.5, Feb. 1983). The moderate improvement in the short-term outlook was the result of a decrease in the percent of consumers expecting business and labor market conditions to worsen, as opposed to an increase in the percent of consumers expecting conditions to improve. Income expectations remain very pessimistic and consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood.”
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
State Street Investor Confidence Index for November 2009 showed Global Investor Confidence fell by 7.6 points, and North American investor confidence remained unchanged. European confidence rose 3.7 points from 101.8 to 105.5. “European investors displayed some increased optimism this month, but elsewhere the evidence is that investors are in a consolidating mood,” said State Street Associates Director Paul O’Connell. “There is an awareness that structural issues such as the US current account deficit, the Asian current account surplus, and the long-run decline of manufacturing employment will need time to be worked out. In the interim, governments continue to support demand, but investors have an eye on both the temporary nature of the stimulus, and its impact on the overall debt burden.”
http://pr.statestreet.com/us/en/20091124_1.html
Sources: BEA, State Street, Conference Board, S&P, NASDAQ, and NAR websites
SKY News Summary 11-19-09
Some say that the economy would improve if the government just reduced the level of uncertainty it has generated by its indecision on taxes, health care and stimulus spending. A case in point is its last-minute decision to extend the home buyer credit and the ensuing effect on today’s housing starts numbers.
Housing starts fell 10.6 percent in October as builders waited to hear if the home buyer incentive would be extended. Single-family housing starts declined 6.8 percent and multifamily housing starts fell by 34.6 percent, the slowest pace on record. “Builders were clearly in a holding pattern in October as the future of the home buyer tax credit hung in the balance,” according to NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is not surprising, given the fact that the tax credit had been the primary driver of construction and sales in the summer and early fall. However, the fact that permits for single-family construction remained roughly unchanged in the month is an indication that builders are preparing for the possibility of more favorable housing market conditions in the future. That said, significant challenges continue to confront builders with regard to obtaining financing for viable projects and appropriate appraisal values on newly built homes.”
http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?sectionID=148&newsID=10036
The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey Activity showed the region’s manufacturing executives expect increased activity within the next six months. (Expectations on new orders and shipments improved this month and the average work hours index was positive for the first time in more than two years). However, optimism for future activity has waned. The future general activity index decreased from 39.8 in September to 36.8, its lowest reading since April. Indexes for future new orders and shipments also declined this month, falling five points and nine points, respectively.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2009/bos1109.cfm
In the week ending Nov. 14, the initial jobless claims number was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week. The 4-week moving average fell 6,500 for the 11th consecutive week. Continuing claims for the week ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,650,000. The 4-week moving average decreased 83,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 5,795,000.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported The Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in October due mainly to increases in the indexes for energy (up 1.5%) and for new (up 1.6%) and used (up 3.4%) motor vehicles. The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2 percent in October, the same increase as in September. CPI-U decreased 0.2 percent over the last 12 months. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.0 percent gain in September, and a 0.4 percent rise in August. Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: “After half a year of consecutive increases, the month-to-month growth of the LEI is stabilizing and the gains continue to be broad-based. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index has been essentially flat since June, after declining since November 2007. The composite indexes suggest the recovery is unfolding and economic activity should continue improving in the near term.” The rate spread of 32 basis points between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield was the greatest positive factor.
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/USLEIpr_1109.pdf
Sources: Federal Reserve, BLS, Conference Board, DOL, and NAHB websites.
SKY News Summary 11-17-09
Today’s numbers show slower economic growth. Consumers bought cars and light trucks, but were reluctant to start major home improvements. Inflation seems to be in check, but industrial production has slowed. Companies continue to use this economy to make strategic acquisitions.
The Census Bureau announced that retail and food services sales for October increased 1.4 percent from the previous month. Gasoline stations sales were down 15.0 percent from October 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 15.0 percent from last year. However, in a surprise move, auto sales increased 7.3 percent from September.
http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index advanced 0.3 percent in October. The increase in the index for finished goods can be attributed to higher prices for energy and food, both of which moved up 1.6 percent. By contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy declined 0.6 percent. Lower prices for light motor trucks and passenger cars led the October decline, falling 5.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. On an unadjusted basis, from October 2008 to October 2009, prices for finished goods fell 1.9 percent.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months. Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent and the output of mines decreased 0.2 percent, but the index for utilities rose 1.6 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 7.1 percent below its level of a year earlier.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g17/Current/default.htm
HP announced that it will purchase 3Com, a provider of networking switching, routing and security solutions, for $2.7 billion. “3Com’s networking products are based on a modern architecture which has been designed to offer better performance, require less power and eliminate administrative complexity when compared against current network offerings. Our products are enterprise proven and widely deployed in the world’s largest banks, manufacturers, Internet service providers, public utilities and retailers,” said Bob Mao, chief executive officer, 3Com. The acquisition of 3Com will dramatically expand HP’s Ethernet switching offerings, add routing solutions and significantly strengthen the company’s position in China – one of the world’s fastest-growing markets – via the H3C offerings.
http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2009/091111xa.html
Applied Materials will acquire the outstanding shares of Semitool for $11 per share or approximately $364 million. The acquisition makes Applied the equipment leader in two fast-growing segments: advanced packaging and the memory industry’s conversion to copper. The combination enables Applied to serve its customers with a broader range of products and expands the company’s reach to a new set of customers in the semiconductor packaging industry. Headquartered in Kalispell, Mont., Semitool is a supplier of electrochemical plating and wafer surface preparation equipment used by chip packaging and chip making companies around the world.
http://www.appliedmaterials.com/news/press_rel.html?menuID=6
Applied Materials 4Q results
http://www.appliedmaterials.com/news/press_rel.html?menuID=6
Sources: Federal Reserve, Applied Materials, HP, BLS, Census Bureau websites.
SKY News Summary 11-13-09
Consumer sentiment may be down, but the trade deficit expanded, showing that someone is driving the need to import goods. Consumer sentiment and retail trade can be very different. October’s retail trade report, out Monday, is expected to be positive.
The U.S. international trade deficit for September widened to $36.5 billion, up from $30.8 billion in August. Exports rose 2.9% and imports grew 5.8%. September exports were $3.7 billion more than August exports while September imports were $9.3 billion more than August imports. The August to September increase in imports showed increases in industrial supplies and materials ($5.5 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.7 billion); capital goods ($0.8 billion); consumer goods ($0.7 billion); and other goods ($0.5 billion). The August to September increase in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($1.7 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 billion); consumer goods ($0.5 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.2 billion); and other goods ($0.2 billion).
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2009/trad0909.htm
The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment falling in early November by 4.6% to 66.0. Unemployment concerns and diminished income resulted in the weakest showing in three months. “Confidence tumbled in early November due to the grim financial realities faced by consumers as well as weaker economic prospects for the year ahead — importantly, the decline in confidence was already in place before the announced increase in the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent on November 6,” the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers statement said.
Jobless claims fell 12,000 in the Nov. 7 week to 502,000 with the four-week average down 4,500 to 519,750 for the lowest level since last November. Continuing claims fell 139,000 to 5.631 million.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20091367.htm
United Technologies announced it has reached an agreement to purchase the GE Security business from GE for $1.82 billion. GE Security has a broad product portfolio of commercial and residential fire detection and life safety systems, intrusion alarms, and video surveillance and access control systems. The business has eight manufacturing facilities and approximately 4,700 employees in 26 countries.
http://www.utc.com/utc/News/News_Details/2009/2009-11-12.html?page=1&year=0
Sources: UTC, DOL, Reuters, and BEA websites
SKY News Summary 11-10-09
The Fed released data that banks have been accumulating government securities at the expense of making loans. What it did not show was that banks need to meet Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (”SCAP”) benchmarks for quality and liquidity of capital before yearend, in order to maintain their Tier 1 common equity standard of 4 percent of risk-weighted assets. The SCAP assessments reach through 2010. Perhaps we will see an expansion in lending once SCAP has expired.
The Federal Reserve’s weekly measure of bank assets and liabilities showed that banks held the same amount of government securities ($1.37 trillion of Treasury and Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac securities) at the end of October, as they held commercial and industrial loans.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/11/09/banks-choosing-treasury-bonds-over-loans/
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=72735&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1286190&highlight=
The IMF released a study entitled “Global Economic Prospects and Principles for Policy Exit” for the Meetings of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, which makes for interesting reading.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/110709.pdf
Today’s ICSC-Goldman’s chain store retail index was down 0.1 percent in the week of Nov. 7 but showed a 2.9 percent year-on-year increase (which wasn’t hard given last year’s results).
http://www.icsc.org/homepage/research_article.php?id=65
T. Rowe Price announced that it will acquire a 26% stake in UTI Asset Management Company for approximately $138 million and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2009. UTI is the fourth largest asset manager in India and the country’s oldest mutual fund institution. The company has about $17.2 billion in average assets under management with 9.75 million individual and institutional investor accounts in India.
http://corporate.troweprice.com/ccw/home/ourCompany/pressReleases/pressRelease.do
Banks making presentations at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Conference include:
Fifth Third
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzU4NTMzfENoaWxkSUQ9MzUwOTMwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
Bank of America
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjUxOTc4NXxDaGlsZElEPTM1ODU4M3xUeXBlPTI=&t=1
American Express
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjUzNjk1N3xDaGlsZElEPTM1ODgzNXxUeXBlPTI=&t=1
Sources: Federal Reserve, American Express, Bank of America, Fifth Third, T.Rowe Price, ICSC, IMF, Wall Street Journal websites.
SKY News Summary 11-05-09
Economic news was mostly positive this week with consumer spending, mortgage applications and productivity showing signs of improvement. Commercial real estate and employment continue to be weak.
The big news from the Mortgage Bankers Association was that the Refinance Index for the week ending October 30, 2009 increased 14.5 percent from the previous week due mainly to a 7 b.p. drop in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 4.97 percent. The Market Composite Index increased 8.2 percent from one week earlier.
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/70843.htm
However, commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations for the third quarter of 2009 were 12 percent lower than during the second quarter of 2009, and 54 percent lower than during the same period last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.
“Tight credit conditions coupled with scant demand for new loans meant that commercial and multifamily mortgage originations remained low in the third quarter,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/70862.htm
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new employment numbers on Friday, which based on the numbers released today by ADP, should show continued improvement. ADP’s payroll count decreased 203,000 from September to October 2009 on a
seasonally adjusted basis, compared to a 227,000 decrease in September. October was the seventh consecutive month during which the decline in employment was less
than in the previous month. Monster’s employment index also showed improvement, rising 1 point in October. Much of the growth shown in the Monster report was in the healthcare and public administration sectors. These numbers add credence to the Department of Labor’s initial jobless claims figures for the week ending October 31 which indicate that initial claims dropped 20,000. According to the same report, continuing claims fell by 68,000.
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_October_09.pdf
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
Productivity increased at a 9.5 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of this increase is due to layoffs at auto plants at the same time cash-for-clunkers ramped up production. The manufacturing sector’s productivity grew 13.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009, as output increased 7.7 percent despite a 5.2 percent decrease in hours worked. This was the largest increase in the quarterly productivity series, which begins in 1987.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
The Treasury’s quarterly refunding included news that 20-year TIPS are being replaced with 30-year TIPS, which will be auctioned semiannually in January and August. The first 30-year TIPS auction will be on Monday, February 22, 2010.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/quarterly-refunding/11-04-2009/Nov%202009%20FINAL%20Statement%20747am.pdf
The Federal Open Market Committee determined that economic activity has continued to pick up. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
http://www.frbatlanta.org/bank_info/circ_router.cfm
Spectra Energy 3Q2009 results:
http://www.spectraenergy.com/news/releases/2009/nov/20091105_01.pdf
Louis Chênevert’s (President and CEO of UTC) presentation at Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference
http://www.utc.com/utc/Static%20files/Investor_Relations/2009-11-04_goldman.pdf
Cisco Q1FY10 Earnings Conference Call:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/CSCO/711897928×0x329571/49bc32b9-fe79-4679-a4b5-cdb383f8c1bf/Q1FY10%20Earnings%20Slides%20without%20Guidance_FINAL.pdf
Sources: Federal Reserve Atlanta, UTC, Cisco, Treasury, BLS, DOL, ADP, and MBAA websites.
SKY News Summary 11-03-09
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs chain store sales index for the week ending October 31 rose by 0.1% from the prior week and increased by 1.9% year-over-year. This was the sixth-consecutive sequential week-over-week gain.
http://www.icsc.org/homepage/research_article.php?id=60
Berkshire Hathaway will buy the remaining 77.4% of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad for $100 per share in cash and stock. On Nov. 2, 2009, the transaction is valued at approximately $44 billion, including $10 billion of outstanding BNSF debt, making it the largest acquisition in Berkshire Hathaway history.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/NOV0309.pdf
http://www.bnsf.com/investors/presentations/Bravo-Blue-IR-Presentation.ppt#386,3,Transaction Overview
Merck and Schering-Plough Corporation announced that they will complete their merger today. The companies will begin combined operations tomorrow, November 4, 2009. As previously announced, Schering-Plough will change its name to Merck and its common stock will trade under the ticker symbol “MRK” on the New York Stock Exchange.
Under the terms of the agreement, Schering-Plough shareholders will receive 0.5767 shares of the newly combined company and $10.50 in cash for each share of Schering-Plough. Each Merck common share will automatically become a common share of the newly combined company.
http://www.merck.com/newsroom/press_releases/corporate/2009_1103.html
According to the Wall Street Journal, Infratil Ltd., in consortium with the government-run New Zealand Superannuation Fund, is hoping to acquire Shell New Zealand’s refining and downstream distribution and retailing businesses. “Shell plans to sell about 15% of its global refining capacity, or about 600,000 barrels a day of capacity, in the next three years as part of a restructuring program aimed at increasing profitability and efficiency. The company agreed in September to sell its fuel and lubricant businesses in Greece for about 260 million euros ($176.1 million).”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703740004574512524174621300.html?mod=rss_asia_whats_news
Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, a subsidiary of Spectra Energy, has completed expansion of its Texas Eastern system that will transport 150 million cubic feet per day of new Rocky Mountain natural gas supplies to Northeast markets. During the last seven years, Texas Eastern Transmission has expanded its system in the Northeast corridor by more than 15 percent and the system is now able to move approximately 4.5 billion cubic feet per day from Ohio to the Northeast
http://www.spectraenergy.com/news/releases/2009/nov/20091102_01.asp
An article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “America’s Natural Gas Revolution” by Daniel Yergin and Robert Ineson discusses the importance of unconventional U.S. gas that is transforming the energy market.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703399204574507440795971268.html
I also discuss the importance of natural gas in my blog 7/18/08
There is an interesting interview with Mr. Yergin on CSPAN available at:
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2009/10/29/HP/A/24846/Daniel+Yergin+Author+The+Prize.aspx
The interview refers to an article in the Financial Times entitled “A crisis in search of a narrative” also by Daniel Yergin, published October 20 2009 available at:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a82d274-bda9-11de-9f6a-00144feab49a.html
Johnson & Johnson announced a restructuring plan which is expected to increase its generate pre-tax cost savings of $1.4-$1.7 billion by 2011, with $800-$900 million expected to be achieved in 2010. Cost savings will be achieved primarily through position eliminations in a range of 6-7 percent of its global workforce.
http://www.jnj.com/connect/news/all/20091103_073000
Here is a good website for those of us wondering about long term care options for our parents or ourselves.
http://www.longtermcare.gov/LTC/Main_Site/index.aspx
UBS’ 3 Q 2009 Presentation:
http://www.ubs.com/1/e/investors.html
Sources: UBS, J&J, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Spectra, Merck, Berkshire Hathaway, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and ICSC websites.
SKY News Summary 11-02-09
The Census Bureau announced that construction spending during September 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $940.3 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised August estimate of $933.0 billion due mainly to residential construction (up 3.9 percent) which offset nonresidential construction which decreased 1.8 percent.
http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
The ISM Manufacturing report showed that the overall economy grew for the sixth consecutive month. According to Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “The manufacturing sector grew for the third consecutive month in October, and the rate of growth is the highest since April 2006 when the PMI registered 56 percent. The jump in the index was driven by production and employment, with both registering significant gains. Production appears to be benefiting from the continuing strength in new orders, while the improvement in employment is due to some callbacks and opportunities for temporary workers. Overall, it appears that inventories are balanced and that manufacturing is in a sustainable recovery mode.”
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales (contracts signed but not closed) in September rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008. Pending home sales were strongest in the West (up 10.2%) while in the Northeast, pending home sales actually dropped 2.0 percent from August.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/11/rise_eight
There is a good article on the money.cnn website entitled “A surprisingly decent third quarter” by Alexandra Twin, that reviews corporate earnings in aggregate.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/02/markets/earnings_roundup/index.htm?postversion=2009110214
This link to the National Bureau of Economic Research website shows the duration of business cycle expansion and contractions:
http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
Sources: NAR, NBER, CNN.Money, ISM, and Census Bureau websites.